Impact of future climate change on malaria in West Africa

Abstract Understanding the regional impact of future climate change is one major global challenges this century. This study investigated possible effects on malaria in West Africa near (2006–2035) and far (2036–2065) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 RCP8.5), compared to an observed evaluation period (1981–2010). Projected rainfall temperature were obtained from coordinated downscaling experiment (CORDEX) simulations Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric model (RCA4). The used Liverpool (LMM), a dynamical driven by daily time series CORDEX data. Our results highlight unimodal shape prevalence distribution, seasonal transmission contrast closely linked latitudinal variation rainfall. Projections showed that mean annual would decrease both climatological periods RCPs but with larger magnitude decreasing RCP8.5. We found for reference greater than projected 6 8 downscaled GCMs. enhances understanding how impacted RCP4.5 RCP8.5 emission scenarios. These indicate southern area at most risk epidemics, control programs need extra effort help make best use available resources stakeholders.